Environmental Dynamics and Global Climate ChangeEnvironmental Dynamics and Global Climate ChangeEnvironmental Dynamics and Global Climate Change2218-44222541-9307Yugra State University1901010.17816/edgcc19010Theoretical worksТеоретические работыUnknownON THE POSSIBILITY OF LONG-TERM FORECASTING OF SEASONAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENAON THE POSSIBILITY OF LONG-TERM FORECASTING OF SEASONAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5216-976XMorozovaSvetlana Vladimirovna

кандидат географических наук, доцент, географический факультет

swetwl@yandex.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4422-8835AlimpievaMariya Aleksandrovna
Russian Federation

ассистент

alimpiewa@rambler.ruSaratov national research state University named after N.G. ChernishevskiСаратовский государственный университет имени Н.Г. Чернышевского04122020112737830122019Copyright ©; 2020, Morozova S., Alimpieva M.Copyright ©; 2020, Морозова С.В., Алимпиева М.А.2020Morozova S., Alimpieva M.Морозова С.В., Алимпиева М.А.http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0https://edgccjournal.org/EDGCC/article/view/19010

In present paper the expanding application possibility of physical-statistical methods in long-term forecast are viewed.A nonparametric discriminate analyzing model has been constructed on the South-East of EPR (European part ofRussia). The model is based on consideration of asynchronous bonds between the condition of circulating systems of theAtlantic-Eurasian hemisphere sector and the period of seasonal hydrotermeological events onset on South-East of ЕPR.This model allows distinguishing three cluster areas which associate with three phases of predicted event; commonly,only two cluster areas are distinguished. We would like to present results of predictions testing of training and controlsets. The conclusion of our model region appliance effectiveness is also represented in paper.

Рассматриваются вопросы расширения применения физико-статистических методов в долгосрочном прогнозировании. На основании учета асинхронных связей между состоянием циркуляционных систем Атлантико-Евразийского сектора полушария и сроками наступления сезонных гидрометеорологических явлений на юго-востоке ЕЧР построена модель непараметрического дискриминантного анализа, позволяющая разделять не две, что делается традиционно, а три кластерные области, соответствующие трем фазам прогнозируемого явления. Приводятся результаты тестирования прогнозов на обучающей и контрольной выборках. Делается вывод об эффективности применения модели в региональном прогнозировании.

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