Permafrost boundary change in the Bolshezemelskaya tundra under different scenarios of climate change in the XXI century

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Abstract

Prognostic estimates of changes in the climatological boundary of the permafrost zone as a function of the average annual air temperature on the territory of the Bolshezemelskaya tundra under various scenarios of the development of the world economy until the middle of the XXI century have been obtained. It is shown that the shift of the climatological boundary of permafrost, determined by the threshold value of the average annual air temperature, in the north-eastern direction observed in the period from 1950 to 2010, according to the adjusted scenario forecasts, obtained using a climate model, will continue in the coming decades under any scenario of the development of the world economy and is an inevitable consequence of anthropogenic influence on the climate. The results of the study are important for assessing the prospects and development of a network of long-term observations, which is being created to monitor the state of permafrost and greenhouse gas fluxes in the Russian Federation.

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About the authors

G. A. Alexandrov

A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences

Author for correspondence.
Email: g.alexandrov@ifaran.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow

A. S. Ginzburg

A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: g.alexandrov@ifaran.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow

M. L. Gytarsky

Russian Energy Agency

Email: g.alexandrov@ifaran.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow

A. V. Chernokulsky

A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences; Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: g.alexandrov@ifaran.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow; Moscow

V. A. Semenov

A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences; Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: g.alexandrov@ifaran.ru

Academician of the RAS

Russian Federation, Moscow; Moscow

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2. Fig. 1. Average annual air temperature in the period 1961–1990 and in the period 1981–2010 according to 20CRv3 reanalysis data.

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3. Fig. 2. The climate transition zone (highlighted in red) from an average annual air temperature below –2°C in the period 1981–2010 to an average annual air temperature above –2°C in the period 2031–2060, based on calculations using the CanESM5 model under various scenarios for the development of the global economy.

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