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ON THE POSSIBILITY OF LONG-TERM FORECASTING OF SEASONAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA
- Authors: Morozova S.V.1, Alimpieva M.A.1
-
Affiliations:
- Saratov national research state University named after N.G. Chernishevski
- Issue: Vol 11, No 2 (2020)
- Pages: 73-78
- Section: Theoretical works
- URL: https://edgccjournal.org/EDGCC/article/view/19010
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.17816/edgcc19010
- ID: 19010
Cite item
Abstract
In present paper the expanding application possibility of physical-statistical methods in long-term forecast are viewed.
A nonparametric discriminate analyzing model has been constructed on the South-East of EPR (European part of
Russia). The model is based on consideration of asynchronous bonds between the condition of circulating systems of the
Atlantic-Eurasian hemisphere sector and the period of seasonal hydrotermeological events onset on South-East of ЕPR.
This model allows distinguishing three cluster areas which associate with three phases of predicted event; commonly,
only two cluster areas are distinguished. We would like to present results of predictions testing of training and control
sets. The conclusion of our model region appliance effectiveness is also represented in paper.
About the authors
Svetlana Vladimirovna Morozova
Saratov national research state University named after N.G. Chernishevski
Email: swetwl@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5216-976X
кандидат географических наук, доцент, географический факультет
Mariya Aleksandrovna Alimpieva
Saratov national research state University named after N.G. Chernishevski
Author for correspondence.
Email: alimpiewa@rambler.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4422-8835
ассистент
Russian Federation, Астраханская ул., 83, Саратов, Саратовская обл., 410012References
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